Texas House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave John Ratcliffe an 89% chance of winning the Texas House 2016 primary. John Ratcliffe won, matching the model's top pick.

1. John Ratcliffe — 89% model odds (won)
2. Ray Hall — 8% model odds
3. Lou Gigliotti — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts