Texas House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Sam Johnson an 85% chance of winning the Texas House 2016 primary. Sam Johnson won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Sam Johnson — 85% model odds (won)
2. David Cornette — 5% model odds
3. Paul Blair — 5% model odds
4. John Calvin Slavens — 3% model odds
5. Keith L. Thurgood — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts