South Carolina House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jenny Horne a 65% chance of winning the South Carolina House 2016 primary. Mark Sanford won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Jenny Horne — 65% model odds
  2. Mark Sanford — 31% model odds (won)
  3. Dimitri Cherny — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts