Pennsylvania Senate 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave John Fetterman a 35% chance of winning the Pennsylvania Senate 2016 primary. Katie Mcginty won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. John Fetterman — 35% model odds
2. Joe Sestak — 31% model odds
3. Katie Mcginty — 28% model odds (won)
4. Scattered — 4% model odds
5. Joseph J. Vodvarka — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts