Pennsylvania House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Glenn Geissinger an 84% chance of winning the Pennsylvania House 2016 primary. Matt Connolly won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Glenn Geissinger — 84% model odds
  2. Scattered — 10% model odds
  3. Matt Connolly — 6% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts