Pennsylvania House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Art Halvorson a 66% chance of winning the Pennsylvania House 2016 primary. Bill Shuster won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Art Halvorson — 66% model odds
  2. Bill Shuster — 27% model odds (won)
  3. Scattered — 7% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts