Pennsylvania House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Steve Santarsiero a 70% chance of winning the Pennsylvania House 2016 primary. Steve Santarsiero won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Steve Santarsiero — 70% model odds (won)
  2. Shaughnessy Naughton — 24% model odds
  3. Scattered — 6% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts