Pennsylvania House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Bill Golderer an 81% chance of winning the Pennsylvania House 2016 primary. Mary Ellen Balchunis won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Bill Golderer — 81% model odds
  2. Mary Ellen Balchunis — 11% model odds (won)
  3. Scattered — 8% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts