Pennsylvania House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Chaka Fattah a 24% chance of winning the Pennsylvania House 2016 primary. Dwight Evans won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Chaka Fattah — 24% model odds
2. Scattered — 24% model odds
3. Dwight Evans — 13% model odds (won)
4. Brian Anthony Gordon — 13% model odds
5. Dan Muroff — 13% model odds
6. Dwight Evans — 13% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts