Oregon Senate 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Sam Carpenter a 50% chance of winning the Oregon Senate 2016 primary. Mark Callahan won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Sam Carpenter — 50% model odds
2. Faye Stewart — 13% model odds
3. Scattered — 12% model odds
4. Eric Navickas — 12% model odds
5. Mark Callahan — 6% model odds (won)
6. Dan Laschober — 6% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts