New York House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave John M. Katko a 78% chance of winning the New York House 2016 primary. Colleen Deacon won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. John M. Katko — 78% model odds
2. Colleen Deacon — 16% model odds (won)
3. Steve Williams — 3% model odds
4. Eric Kingson — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts