New York House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Martin Babinec a 69% chance of winning the New York House 2016 primary. Claudia Tenney won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Martin Babinec — 69% model odds
2. Claudia Tenney — 6% model odds (won)
3. Claudia Tenney — 6% model odds
4. Claudia Tenney — 6% model odds
5. Steven M. Wells — 5% model odds
6. George K. Phillips — 4% model odds
7. George K. Phillips — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts