New York House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Phil Oliva a 50% chance of winning the New York House 2016 primary. Phil Oliva won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Phil Oliva — 50% model odds
2. Phil Oliva — 21% model odds (won)
3. Phil Oliva — 21% model odds
4. Kenneth Del Vecchio — 8% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts