New York House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Ronald Pichler a 38% chance of winning the New York House 2016 primary. Ivanka Trump won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Ronald Pichler — 38% model odds
  2. Robert Ardini — 16% model odds
  3. Ivanka Trump — 16% model odds (won)
  4. Robert Ardini — 16% model odds
  5. Donald M. Sachs — 16% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts