New York House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jerrold L. Nadler an 89% chance of winning the New York House 2016 primary. Jerrold L. Nadler won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Jerrold L. Nadler — 89% model odds (won)
2. Mikhail Oliver Rosenberg — 4% model odds
3. Philip Rosenthal — 3% model odds
4. Philip Rosenthal — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts