New York House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Alan Bellone a 50% chance of winning the New York House 2016 primary. Maria R. Guastella won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Alan Bellone — 50% model odds
2. Maria R. Guastella — 50% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts