Nevada House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Fred Horne a 59% chance of winning the Nevada House 2016 primary. Mary Perry won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Fred Horne — 59% model odds
  2. Mary Perry — 10% model odds (won)
  3. Stephanie Carlisle — 8% model odds
  4. Jeff Miller — 8% model odds
  5. Gary "Coach" Johnston — 8% model odds
  6. Louis "Blulaker" Baker — 8% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts