New Jersey House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Richard Mcfarlane a 61% chance of winning the New Jersey House 2016 primary. Joseph M. Wenzel won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Richard Mcfarlane — 61% model odds
2. Lee Anne Brogowski — 29% model odds
3. Joseph M. Wenzel — 10% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts