New Jersey House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Leonard Lance an 84% chance of winning the New Jersey House 2016 primary. Leonard Lance won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Leonard Lance — 84% model odds (won)
2. David Larsen — 13% model odds
3. Craig P. Heard — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts