New Jersey House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Christopher H. Smith a 64% chance of winning the New Jersey House 2016 primary. Christopher H. Smith won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Christopher H. Smith — 64% model odds (won)
  2. Bruce C. Mac Donald — 36% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts