New Hampshire Senate 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Kelly Ayotte an 81% chance of winning the New Hampshire Senate 2016 primary. Maggie Hassan won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Kelly Ayotte — 81% model odds
  2. Maggie Hassan — 3% model odds (won)
  3. Scattered — 3% model odds
  4. Gerard Beloin — 3% model odds
  5. Tom Alciere — 3% model odds
  6. Stanley Michael Emanuel — 3% model odds
  7. Jim Rubens — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts