New Hampshire House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Ann Mclane Kuster a 73% chance of winning the New Hampshire House 2016 primary. Jim Lawrence won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Ann Mclane Kuster — 73% model odds
2. Eric P. Estevez — 5% model odds
3. Walter W. Kelly — 3% model odds
4. Andy Martin — 3% model odds
5. Jay Mercer — 3% model odds
6. Casey Newell — 3% model odds
7. Scattered — 3% model odds
8. Jim Lawrence — 3% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts