New Hampshire House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Frank Guinta a 50% chance of winning the New Hampshire House 2016 primary. Carol Shea-Porter won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Frank Guinta — 50% model odds
2. Carol Shea-Porter — 40% model odds (won)
3. Scattered — 6% model odds
4. Michael Callis — 3% model odds
5. Rich Ashooh — 2% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts