North Carolina House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave David W. Thompson an 8% chance of winning the North Carolina House 2016 primary. Ted Budd won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. David W. Thompson — 8% model odds
  2. Kay Daly — 7% model odds
  3. Andrew C. Brock — 6% model odds
  4. Ted Budd — 6% model odds (won)
  5. Hank Henning — 6% model odds
  6. Matthew J. Mccall — 6% model odds
  7. Dan Barrett — 6% model odds
  8. Harry Warren — 6% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts