North Carolina House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Patrick Mchenry a 71% chance of winning the North Carolina House 2016 primary. Patrick Mchenry won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Patrick Mchenry — 71% model odds (won)
  2. Jeff Gregory — 18% model odds
  3. Jeffrey Baker — 6% model odds
  4. Albert Lee, Jr. Wiley — 6% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts