North Carolina House 2016 — Model Retrospective
The model's final pre-election forecast gave Renee Ellmers an 88% chance of winning the North Carolina House 2016 primary. George Holding won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.
- Renee Ellmers — 88% model odds
- George Holding — 9% model odds (won)
- Greg Brannon — 3% model odds