Missouri Senate 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Patrick Lee a 27% chance of winning the Missouri Senate 2016 primary. Fred Ryman won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Patrick Lee — 27% model odds
2. Steven Wallace — 23% model odds
3. Fred Ryman — 10% model odds (won)
4. Gina Bufe — 10% model odds
5. Nathaniel Malone — 10% model odds
6. Jon Kelly — 10% model odds
7. Thomas Morgan — 10% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts