Missouri House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jason Smith an 87% chance of winning the Missouri House 2016 primary. Jason Smith won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Jason Smith — 87% model odds (won)
  2. Phillip S. Smith — 7% model odds
  3. Hal Brown — 3% model odds
  4. Todd Mahn — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts