Missouri House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Kyle Yarber a 60% chance of winning the Missouri House 2016 primary. David M. Blackwell won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Kyle Yarber — 60% model odds
2. David M. Blackwell — 11% model odds (won)
3. Edward Dwayne Fields — 11% model odds
4. Matthew C. Mcnabney — 11% model odds
5. Travis Gonzalez — 6% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts