Missouri House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Ann Wagner an 82% chance of winning the Missouri House 2016 primary. Ann Wagner won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Ann Wagner — 82% model odds (won)
2. Greg Sears — 9% model odds
3. David Justus Arnold — 9% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts