Minnesota House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Tom Emmer a 65% chance of winning the Minnesota House 2016 primary. Tom Emmer won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Tom Emmer — 65% model odds (won)
2. A. J. Kern — 18% model odds
3. Patrick Munro — 18% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts