Minnesota House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Keith Ellison an 85% chance of winning the Minnesota House 2016 primary. Keith Ellison won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Keith Ellison — 85% model odds (won)
2. Gregg A. Iverson — 8% model odds
3. Lee Bauer — 8% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts