Michigan House 2016 — Model Retrospective
The model's final pre-election forecast gave Tom Casperson a 57% chance of winning the Michigan House 2016 primary. Jack Bergman won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.
- Tom Casperson — 57% model odds
- Jason Allen — 30% model odds
- Jack Bergman — 6% model odds (won)
- Ellis Boal — 6% model odds