Michigan House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Tom Casperson a 57% chance of winning the Michigan House 2016 primary. Jack Bergman won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Tom Casperson — 57% model odds
  2. Jason Allen — 30% model odds
  3. Jack Bergman — 6% model odds (won)
  4. Ellis Boal — 6% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts