Maine House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Ande Allen Smith a 59% chance of winning the Maine House 2016 primary. Mark I. Holbrook won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Ande Allen Smith — 59% model odds
2. Mark I. Holbrook — 41% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts