Maryland Senate 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Chris Van Hollen a 69% chance of winning the Maryland Senate 2016 primary. Chris Van Hollen won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Chris Van Hollen — 69% model odds (won)
  2. Donna F. Edwards — 6% model odds
  3. Freddie Donald, Jr. Dickson — 3% model odds
  4. Theresa C. Scaldaferri — 3% model odds
  5. Lih Young — 3% model odds
  6. Charles U. Smith — 3% model odds
  7. Ralph Jaffe — 3% model odds
  8. Blaine Taylor — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts