Maryland House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave David Trone a 74% chance of winning the Maryland House 2016 primary. Jamie Raskin won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. David Trone — 74% model odds
  2. Kathleen Matthews — 5% model odds
  3. Jamie Raskin — 4% model odds (won)
  4. Ana Sol Gutierrez — 4% model odds
  5. Kumar P. Barve — 3% model odds
  6. William Jawando — 3% model odds
  7. David M. Anderson — 3% model odds
  8. Joel Rubin — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts