Maryland House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Ray Bly a 54% chance of winning the Maryland House 2016 primary. Corrogan R. Vaughn won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Ray Bly — 54% model odds
2. Corrogan R. Vaughn — 15% model odds (won)
3. William T. Newton — 15% model odds
4. Myles B. Hoeing — 15% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts