Maryland House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Pat Mcdonough a 78% chance of winning the Maryland House 2016 primary. Pat Mcdonough won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Pat Mcdonough — 78% model odds (won)
2. Carl H., Jr. Magee — 6% model odds
3. Bill Heine — 6% model odds
4. Mark Gerard Shell — 6% model odds
5. Yuripzy Morgan — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts