Maryland House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Michael D., Sr. Smigiel a 64% chance of winning the Maryland House 2016 primary. Andy Harris won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Michael D., Sr. Smigiel — 64% model odds
  2. Andy Harris — 25% model odds (won)
  3. Jonathan Marvin, Jr. Goff — 7% model odds
  4. Sean M. Jackson — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts