Kentucky Senate 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Rand Paul a 69% chance of winning the Kentucky Senate 2016 primary. Rand Paul won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Rand Paul — 69% model odds (won)
  2. James R. Gould — 25% model odds
  3. Stephen Howard Slaughter — 6% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts