Kentucky Senate 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jim Gray a 79% chance of winning the Kentucky Senate 2016 primary. Jim Gray won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Jim Gray — 79% model odds (won)
2. Ron Leach — 5% model odds
3. Tom Recktenwald — 4% model odds
4. Grant T. Short — 4% model odds
5. Rory Houlihan — 4% model odds
6. Sellus Wilder — 3% model odds
7. Jeff Kender — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts