Kentucky House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jason Batts a 38% chance of winning the Kentucky House 2016 primary. James R. Comer won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Jason Batts — 38% model odds
2. James R. Comer — 15% model odds (won)
3. Mike Pape — 15% model odds
4. Miles A., Jr. Caughey — 15% model odds
5. James R. Comer — 15% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts