Indiana House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Luke Messer a 65% chance of winning the Indiana House 2016 primary. Luke Messer won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Luke Messer — 65% model odds (won)
  2. Jeff Smith — 18% model odds
  3. Charles Chuck, Jr. Johnson — 18% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts