Indiana House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Kip Tom a 73% chance of winning the Indiana House 2016 primary. Jim Banks won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Kip Tom — 73% model odds
2. Jim Banks — 6% model odds (won)
3. Kevin Howell — 6% model odds
4. Mark Willard Baringer — 6% model odds
5. Elizabeth "Liz" Brown — 5% model odds
6. Pam Galloway — 5% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts