Indiana House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Todd Nightenhelser an 84% chance of winning the Indiana House 2016 primary. Tommy A. Schrader won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Todd Nightenhelser — 84% model odds
2. Tommy A. Schrader — 8% model odds (won)
3. John Forrest Roberson — 8% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts