Illinois Senate 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Mark Steven Kirk a 90% chance of winning the Illinois Senate 2016 primary. Mark Steven Kirk won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Mark Steven Kirk — 90% model odds (won)
  2. Scott Summers — 7% model odds
  3. James T. Marter — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts