Illinois Senate 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Tammy Duckworth an 89% chance of winning the Illinois Senate 2016 primary. Tammy Duckworth won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Tammy Duckworth — 89% model odds (won)
2. Patricia Elaine Beard — 5% model odds
3. Napoleon Harris — 3% model odds
4. Andrea Zopp — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts