Illinois House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Vince Kolber a 67% chance of winning the Illinois House 2016 primary. Rob Sherman won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Vince Kolber — 67% model odds
  2. Rob Sherman — 30% model odds (won)
  3. Warren "Grizz" Grimsley — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts