Iowa House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jim Mowrer a 78% chance of winning the Iowa House 2016 primary. Jim Mowrer won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Jim Mowrer — 78% model odds (won)
2. Mike Sherzan — 11% model odds
3. Scattered — 4% model odds
4. Pat Murphy — 4% model odds
5. Desmund Adams — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts