Iowa House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Monica Vernon an 88% chance of winning the Iowa House 2016 primary. Monica Vernon won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Monica Vernon — 88% model odds (won)
  2. Scattered — 7% model odds
  3. Pat Murphy — 5% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts